A lot of investors dislike volatility. They reason that the up and down movement of the stock price makes it harder to predict. Higher uncertainty means higher risk, they say. Therefore, for the same reward, they prefer stocksthat has a lower volatility.

On the contrary, smart investors like Warren Buffett embraces volatility. He reasoned that if a stock A is trading at $ 50 and has a fair value of $ 60. Shouldn’t A be less risky if it plunges to say $ 20 or $ 15? That is a valid point. This of course assume that the fundamental that caused the drop has not changed.

I like volatility for several reasons. For entry and exit points, volatility increases our potential return. No, I do not advocate day trading. No, I do not recommend buying stock A at $ 30 and selling it at $ 31 just because it has risen in value. We should try to be investors with long term horizon of at least one year.

Another reason to like volatility is that it reduces uncertainty. Some of you might roll your eyes and think that this is nonsense. Let us explore this. What causes a stock to move? The stock price might move due to market sentiment. It also move when it release earnings or new products or news about incoming threat from competitors. In other word, the stock price moves due to the news concerning the company.

News are fact. Fact are certainty. Therefore, when the news is out, you get less uncertainty because the unknown has already been discovered. Be it bad or good, news always reduce uncertainty.

For example, when Merck & Co Inc. (MRK) announced the withdrawal of its painkiller drug, Vioxx, that reduces uncertainty. Sure, shareholders lost money as the stock price plunged and volatility increased. But, sooner or later, Vioxx will be pulled anyway. Not pulling Vioxx only make the liabilities worse. Now, potential investors can estimate Merck’s fair value based on the ‘bad’ news. While the news is bad, it reduces uncertainty which reduces risk. This is in a sense good news for investors.

It is hard to fathom. But we need to embrace volatility. Sooner or later, a company will announce news, which can be good or bad. Either way, the stock price will be volatile when the news is announced. Volatility is bound to happen. Otherwise, how can we investors profit from it? When a company’s stock price does not move much, you can’t profit much and vice versa. The trick is knowing when to buy and when to sell. That will determine your rate of return.

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Tags: Annual Report, finance, investing, Portfolio, stockAnnual Report, finance, investing, Portfolio, stock

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Compounding is one of few wonders in the world. Albert Einstein said it himself. I tend to agree. It is so powerful that it doesn’t take much to accumulate vast amount of wealth. Yet, so many people complained that they did not have enough money to invest.

Quick questions. How much does it take to be a millionaire? That depends. If you are in your early 20s, all it take is $ 2 a day and 10.5 % annual return on your investment. Hey, stock market can gives you that. The stock market indices has given that to investors since world war II. When you are 30 years old and you expect to retire by the time you are seventies, you need to invest $ 5 per day with 10.5 % annual return. How about when you are forty? You need roughly $15 per day or $ 450 per month. This is a little heavy for some.

However, as you can see, time is your friend. If you just graduate from college, you can be a millionaire with a mere $ 2 a day. The minimum wage for most state is $ 7 per hour. You think you can set aside $ 2 each and every day? Sure, you can! But still, how many people has to depend on their family when they can’t work?

No matter how old you are, you can still add considerable amount of money by investing a dollar a day. If you are twenty years away from retirement, one dollar a day will give you an extra $ 22,000 when you retire. That is about six months in living expenses for normal folks!

Do you need ideas on how to raise $ 1 a day? Oh, come on. Don’t make me come and get you. Just take that $ 1 bill from your wallet and put it someplace away from you.

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Tags: Annual Report, finance, investing, Sample Portfolio, stockAnnual Report, finance, investing, Sample Portfolio, stock

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Some Financial Analysts argue that using cash flow will provide a more accurate picture in determining the fair value of a common stock. What gives? They reason that investors should follow where the cash is. Cash flow will track the flow of cash in and out and this is the reason business exists; to get cash.

Things are not that simple, however. Just as net income, cash flow can be easily manipulated. Cash flow here refers to cash flow from operations found on the statement of cash flow published regularly by publicly traded companies.

Let’s take a look at the statement of cash flow for one publicly traded company, Amazon.com (AMZN) and decipher its components. We will use the statement of cash flow for the year ending on 31 december 2004. Here is the source from Yahoo! Finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cf?s=AMZN&annual

The top part is net income, which is self-explanatory. This is what a company earns during a period of time. For the time period earns $ 588 M. To get into the cash flow figure, we need to add depreciation expense, subtract any increase in accounts receivable and inventory and add any increase in short term liability such as accounts payable. Sometimes, there will be some adjustments made to the net income which will increase or decrease cash flow depending on the charge.

Now here is how companies can manipulate cash flow. This will in effect temporarily give an impression that cash flow has improved markedly.

Temporarily Delaying Payment. This will increase Accounts Payable which in turn will improve cash flow. While only good companies can demand its suppliers to delay payments, all the debt eventually needs to be paid.

Demanding faster payments from customers. While an efficient collection is needed for a firm’s survival, giving less credit to customers will result in them balking away. In the short term, cash flow will improve due to improved collection. In the long run, customers will go to competitors who can offer better credit.

Keeping a tight supply of inventory. While bloated inventory is wasteful, there is a certain level of inventory that is needed to keep a business running. Short-minded management will try to manipulate cash flow by keeping a short supply of inventory. When you run a retail business, certain inventory is needed. It is not similar to a built-to-order company like Dell Inc. (DELL).

These three items vary from quarter to quarter and year to year. When determining fair value, it is best to ignore these fluctuations and focus on operational earnings generated by the company.

Another misleading cue from cash flow is that it adds up depreciation as the amount of cash generated from operations. While depreciation expense is a non-cash transaction, it is a necessary cost of doing business. For example a company bought a computer and depreciate it for five years. For the next five years, the company incur a non-cash charge, which is the reason why we add depreciation expense to our cash flow. However, we need that computer for our operational purpose. Unless we stop spending in our capital expenditure, adding depreciation expense to our cash flow does not make sense. Sure, you enjoy the benefit now. But five years from now, you need to spend money on a new computer, which is a cash outflow.

As with other investing tools, cash flow from operations cannot be used independently of other ratios. Each and every financial ratio has its strengths and weaknesses. I believe that cash flow does not reflect the true earning power of a company because of short-term fluctuations of the balance sheet and the addition of depreciation expense into a firm’s cash flow.

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Tags: Annual Report, Balance Sheet, cash flow, finance, investing, Portfolio, stockAnnual Report, Balance Sheet, cash flow, finance, investing, Portfolio, stock

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